Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 17 June 2026, Seoul's highest temperature will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and recorded in degrees Celsius. The settlement will depend on Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date, with traders selecting from predefined temperature ranges. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the market has yet to attract substantive trading activity or consensus positioning ahead of the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date.

Seoul's June temperatures typically range between 20°C and 28°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C. Historical June data from Incheon shows that temperatures exceeding 32°C occur roughly once every five to seven years during this month, whilst readings below 20°C are comparatively rare. The 2018 heat wave saw Seoul reach 39.6°C in late June, demonstrating the upper bounds of plausible outcomes, though such extremes remain statistical outliers rather than baseline expectations for mid-June conditions.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026, particularly any advisories regarding heat domes or anomalous pressure systems affecting the Korean peninsula. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during early 2026 will influence broader atmospheric circulation patterns. The absence of current trading activity and the 0% probability reading may reflect either genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will materialise or simply insufficient market participation at this early stage, making this contract potentially sensitive to initial price discovery once meaningful positions accumulate.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.