Highest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 16 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains the recorded high for that day. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring resolution data from Wunderground's historical records for the specific station.

Mid-June in Seoul typically falls within early summer conditions, with average highs around 26–28°C, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during heat waves. Historical records from the Korea Meteorological Administration show that June temperatures at Incheon can vary considerably depending on whether the East Asian summer monsoon has established itself; pre-monsoon years tend toward warmer, drier conditions, whilst monsoon-influenced patterns bring cooler, more humid air masses. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the resolution mechanism or expect the market to remain unresolved due to data availability issues.

The key catalyst is the actual meteorological pattern developing across the Korean Peninsula in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international weather models (GFS, ECMWF) from late May onwards, as these will indicate whether high-pressure systems or monsoon troughs are likely to dominate. The absence of comparable sportsbook lines or analyst consensus on this specific weather outcome reflects the niche nature of granular temperature prediction markets; cross-platform comparison is limited to other weather-focused prediction markets offering similar Seoul or East Asian temperature contracts.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.