Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 12 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded that day in Celsius. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either absent from this contract or systematically underweighting certain temperature bands, a pattern worth examining against historical June conditions in the region.

June temperatures at Incheon typically range between 20–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that mid-June sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer conditions; whilst extreme heat is possible, it remains less probable than moderate warmth. The current zero probability across all temperature ranges indicates either thin liquidity or a systematic mispricing relative to seasonal norms, which traders should cross-reference against long-range forecasts from the Korean Met Office and comparable prediction markets on other weather platforms.

Traders should monitor the Arctic Oscillation and Western Pacific subtropical high pressure patterns through May and early June 2026, as these drive seasonal temperature variance in East Asia. Any significant atmospheric blocking patterns or tropical cyclone activity in the region could shift probabilities materially. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data for that specific station; traders should verify the platform's data reliability and any potential gaps in reporting before committing capital, particularly given the settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.