Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 11 June 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. Seoul's early summer climate typically produces warm but not extreme conditions in mid-June, with historical daily highs ranging between 24°C and 28°C during this period. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast opportunity.

Historical June data from Incheon Airport shows considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest temperatures on 11 June ranged from 21.5°C to 29.2°C, with most years clustering around 25–27°C. This variability reflects the transitional nature of early summer in South Korea, where monsoon patterns begin influencing weather patterns. The current 0% reading across all outcome ranges is unusual for a weather market with established historical precedent, suggesting either extremely wide temperature bands that traders find implausible or a liquidity issue rather than genuine disagreement about Seoul's likely conditions.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, which typically issue detailed June outlooks by late May. Pacific typhoon activity during late May and early June can significantly influence Seoul's weather trajectory. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical data for Incheon Airport, which serves as the official reference station for Seoul's weather reporting. Any divergence between this station's readings and other Seoul-area measurements could affect interpretation, though Wunderground's historical records are generally consistent with official Korean meteorological records.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.