Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 10 June 2026 will determine the settlement of this market. Seoul's early summer climate typically sees daily highs in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, though June can produce occasional heat spikes. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which records hourly observations from the airport station—the official reference point for Seoul's weather data. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders currently view the market as either unresolved or awaiting clarification on the specific temperature bands available for settlement.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul show considerable variability. Over the past decade, 10 June highs have ranged from approximately 20°C to 28°C, with an average around 24–25°C. The 2018 heatwave season saw early-June temperatures exceed 30°C, though such extremes remain outliers. This historical spread indicates the market's outcome depends heavily on whether June 2026 tracks closer to typical seasonal patterns or deviates toward anomalous warmth. Current seasonal forecasts and long-range models will become increasingly relevant as the settlement date approaches, though their reliability diminishes beyond two weeks.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks and any El Niño or La Niña developments that could influence East Asian temperatures. Real-time weather forecasts will become actionable only in the final week before 10 June. The absence of meaningful odds across other prediction platforms suggests limited trading activity, which may reflect uncertainty about the available temperature bands rather than consensus on the underlying weather outcome.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.