Highest temperature in Seoul on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul on 7 July 2026 will see its peak temperature measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market asking whether that reading falls into a specific Celsius range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will not hit the threshold in question, despite Seoul’s July climate typically delivering highs between 27°C and 30°C (81°F–85°F), rarely dipping below 23°C or exceeding 33°C[1].

Historically, early July in Seoul has seen record-breaking heat: in 2023, Seoul reached 37.7°C (99.9°F), the highest early July temperature in 117 years of records[7]. South Korea also recorded its second-hottest July since 1973, averaging 27.1°C, and set an all-time national record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon in 2025[2][4]. These cases frame the 0% probability as unusually cautious, given that tropical nights—overnight temperatures above 25°C—have persisted for 22 consecutive days, breaking a century-old record[6][8].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Incheon, as sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or urban heat amplification could alter the peak temperature. Recent reports from Anadolu Ajansı confirm that July 2023 saw unprecedented heat, with Seoul hitting 37.7°C, underscoring the volatility of early July weather in the region[7]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the monsoon season’s progression remains a key dependency for temperature outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.