Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C during this period. The 28th falls within the height of the East Asian summer monsoon season, when the Korean peninsula is frequently affected by warm, humid air masses from the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Historical records from Incheon International Airport—the designated measurement station—show considerable year-to-year variability, though temperatures exceeding 33°C occur in roughly one-third of July years on record.

The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse trading activity on this particular contract. Comparable weather prediction markets typically show wider probability distributions across multiple temperature ranges during summer months, suggesting either consolidation around a narrow outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Recent Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts for late July generally anticipate above-average temperatures, though seasonal predictions remain subject to significant uncertainty three months in advance.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early July, as typhoons or their remnants can substantially cool the Korean peninsula. The timing of the East Asian summer monsoon's peak intensity—typically mid-to-late July—will influence atmospheric moisture and cloud cover on the settlement date. Any significant anomalies in sea-surface temperatures across the Pacific will also merit attention, as these drive broader regional weather patterns. Real-time meteorological updates from the KMA become increasingly reliable within two weeks of the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.