Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is about the **maximum temperature at Incheon International Airport Station** on 27 July 2026, which is the listed resolution source rather than a generic Seoul city reading. With the current crowd-implied probability effectively concentrated on the low-30s Celsius band and **0% YES** on the binary framing, the market is signalling that traders see a sub-range outcome as far more likely than an extreme heat print. Polymarket’s live pricing has the front-running outcome at **31°C (37%)**, with **30°C (32%)** next, which is consistent with a tight distribution rather than a broad swing into the mid-30s.[1]

Historical and comparable weather context points the same way. July in South Korea is typically hot and humid, but also noisy because monsoon moisture can cap afternoon heating through cloud cover and rainfall; that is why market odds are clustered around **30–32°C** rather than priced for a much hotter day.[1][3] Recent Korean reporting says the rainy season is ending and a nationwide heatwave is beginning from **28 July**, while KMA forecasts for **27 July to 2 August** show morning temperatures of **23–26°C** and daytime highs of **29–37°C**, above the seasonal average of **29–33°C**.[2] That supports a warm reading, but not a clear case for the top end of the contract’s range.

For traders, the key catalysts are the next KMA updates, local cloud/rain bands, and whether the airport sits under sea-breeze moderation or late-day convection around the final settlement window. The contract settles on the **highest temperature recorded all day** at the airport station, so even a brief afternoon surge matters more than the morning setup. By contrast, if showers arrive earlier than forecast, they can suppress the peak and keep the result inside the same tightly priced 30–32°C cluster.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.