Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in mid-July, with daily highs typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during this period. The settlement mechanism uses Incheon International Airport's weather station as the official reference point, which sits approximately 50 kilometres west of central Seoul and often records slightly cooler temperatures than the city centre due to its coastal proximity. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect the highest temperature on 14 July 2026 to fall below the lowest resolution bracket offered by the market structure.

Historical July data from Incheon shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur in roughly 15–20% of years during mid-summer, typically driven by Tibetan high-pressure systems that push warm air masses across the Korean peninsula. The 2018 heat wave saw Incheon reach 37.8°C in early August, whilst more recent summers have produced peaks in the 33–34°C range during comparable periods. Current crowd positioning at 0% implies confidence that 14 July will not produce an exceptional heat event, though this reflects the inherent difficulty in forecasting specific daily extremes rather than dismissal of summer heat risk.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the East Asian weather pattern forecasts from late June onwards, particularly the position and intensity of the Tibetan anticyclone system. South Korea's Meteorological Administration typically issues extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead; any warnings of heat waves or unusual atmospheric blocking patterns would shift expectations materially. Seasonal monsoon activity and tropical cyclone development in the Western Pacific can also influence mid-July conditions, making real-time meteorological updates critical for reassessing probabilities as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.