Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces a critical heat check on 13 July 2026, as traders assess the likelihood of the Incheon International Airport station recording a specific maximum temperature. While the current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome on the primary contract sits at 0%, this figure masks a nuanced distribution across temperature ranges on Polymarket. The market actually assigns a 42% probability to a peak of 32°C, with 33°C holding 28% and 31°C at 12%, indicating significant divergence between the binary framing and the underlying temperature-range odds [1].

Historical precedents suggest Seoul’s July heat is volatile but frequently exceeds 30°C, with daily highs typically ranging between 81°F and 85°F (27°C–29°C) and rarely falling below 74°F [5]. Recent anomalies reinforce this volatility: in early July 2024, Seoul hit 37.7°C, the hottest early-July reading in 117 years, while the nation recorded its second-hottest July since 1973 with an average of 27.1°C [6][7]. The 0% binary probability appears misaligned with these trends, as comparable years show frequent breaches of the 32°C threshold, suggesting the market may be underpricing the likelihood of moderate-to-high heat.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station, the designated resolution source, as well as broader Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts for mid-July heatwaves [1]. Recent reports highlight South Korea’s susceptibility to record-breaking summer heat, with 22 consecutive “tropical nights” recorded in July 2025 and an all-time national peak of 41.0°C reached in Hongcheon [3][4]. Any sudden shift in monsoon patterns or urban heat advisories could rapidly alter implied probabilities, particularly if temperatures approach the 34°C+ range, which currently holds only an 8% market share [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.