Highest temperature in Seoul on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is bracing for peak summer heat as traders assess the likelihood of extreme temperatures at Incheon International Airport on 12 July 2026. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high-temperature outcome suggests the market views that threshold as virtually unattainable, yet historical data indicates Seoul regularly experiences July highs between 29°C and 35°C, with recent years pushing toward 37°C.

Historical precedents frame this near-zero probability with caution. In early July 2025, Seoul recorded 37.7°C, the highest temperature for that period in 117 years of records [7][10]. Furthermore, July 2025 saw 22 consecutive “tropical nights” with overnight temperatures above 25°C, signalling a sustained heatwave pattern that has become more frequent [1][3]. While the all-time national record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon, not Seoul, the capital’s trend of escalating summer highs suggests that dismissing extreme outcomes entirely may overlook accelerating climate anomalies [2].

Traders should monitor daily bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration for real-time heatwave advisories, as these often precede record-breaking days [6]. Recent reports confirm South Korea endured its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average of 27.1°C, reinforcing the likelihood of elevated temperatures continuing into mid-July [6]. Unlike sportsbooks that may lag on weather-specific lines, prediction markets like this one resolve directly against Wunderground data from Incheon, making local station readings the sole catalyst for settlement [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.