Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the Incheon International Airport Station will record the highest temperature for the day, a metric that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to a “YES” resolution. This implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to prevailing forecasts of cooler conditions or a misalignment between the range boundaries and historical norms.

Historical data frames this probability with stark clarity: July in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 81°F and 85°F (27.2°C–29.4°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (32.8°C), yet recent years have shattered records. In early July 2025, Seoul hit 37.7°C, the highest in 117 years, while July 2025 was the second-hottest on record nationally, averaging 27.1°C. A streak of 22 tropical nights above 25°C recently broke a century-old record, suggesting that even if daytime highs dip, the thermal baseline remains elevated, making a zero-probability stance on a high-temperature range potentially premature if the range is set conservatively low.

Traders must monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns, as these dictate immediate temperature spikes. Recent reports confirm July 2025 was the second-hottest July since 1973, with nationwide averages reaching 27.1°C, and a new all-time heat record of 41.0°C set in Hongcheon, indicating that extreme heat events are not isolated anomalies but recurring features of the current climate regime. The divergence between the zero implied probability and the analyst consensus on rising heat trends suggests a significant pricing inefficiency worth scrutiny.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.