Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the event occurring. This binary contract hinges on whether the day’s peak heat falls within a specific, narrow range, despite Seoul’s historical tendency for extreme summer temperatures.

Historically, Seoul has experienced record-breaking early-July heat, with 37.8°C logged on 8 July 2023—the highest ever in early July for 117 years[4][6]. Average July highs in Seoul climb from 81°F to 85°F, rarely dipping below 74°F or exceeding 91°F[2]. In 2025, South Korea endured its second-hottest July since 1973, averaging 27.1°C[3], while tropical nights above 25°C persisted for 22 consecutive days, breaking a century-old record[8]. These precedents suggest that a 0% implied probability may diverge sharply from analyst consensus on summer volatility.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and Wunderground’s real-time updates for Incheon, as sudden shifts in monsoon patterns or urban heat accumulation could alter outcomes[1]. Recent reports highlight that nighttime temperatures in Seoul have surged beyond historical norms, indicating a warming trend that may elevate daytime peaks[8]. With settlement ending 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, any unforecasted heat spike could invalidate the current odds, creating meaningful divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.