Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at Incheon International Airport on 2 August is the key number for this contract, and the live market is already pricing in a very ordinary summer peak rather than an outlier. Polymarket’s contract has 32°C as the leading outcome at 42%, with 33°C next at 30%, while the market description says the source is the day’s highest reading at Incheon Intl Airport Station on Wunderground.[1] That crowd view is broadly consistent with the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range framing, which points to daytime highs in the 33–39°C range across the Seoul metropolitan area and nearby regions, but Incheon itself sits on the cooler edge of that band.[2][4]

Historically, Incheon tends to run below central Seoul on hot days, which is why a 32–33°C finish is a more natural base case than anything near the upper regional forecast. Recent weather coverage has described the peninsula as being in a severe heatwave, with KMA-reported highs of 34°C in Seoul and 32°C in Incheon on 31 July, and Reuters noted that South Korea had just logged a new national heat record of 41.4°C in Yangsan, underscoring how extreme the broader pattern is even if coastal airports lag the inland maxima.[7][11] That makes the current zero-per-cent yes pricing for a higher-temperature bucket understandable: the market is not ignoring the heat, but it is discounting the chance that Incheon breaks meaningfully above its typical summer range.[1][16]

Traders should watch the KMA’s daytime updates and the Wunderground daily-history page, because the contract resolves off the highest recorded value for the day, not the forecast maximum, and late-day warmth can still matter if skies stay clear and winds remain light.[1][5] The main catalyst is therefore the actual station trace through the afternoon and early evening, alongside any revision to the regional forecast if the anticyclone strengthens or cloud/rain suppresses the top end.[1][2] Comparatively, the sportsbook-style “line” here is effectively the market’s quoted temperature bucket distribution, and it sits close to analyst-style weather commentary rather than a divergent contrarian view.[1][2][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.