Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 12 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in no realistic chance of extreme heat on that specific date, though Seoul's August climate regularly produces temperatures exceeding 30°C.

Seoul's August temperatures have historically ranged from 23°C to 39°C across the past two decades, with daily highs typically clustering between 28°C and 34°C. The 2018 heat wave pushed readings to 39.6°C in central Seoul, though Incheon Airport—situated on the coast—generally records 1–2°C cooler readings than the city centre owing to maritime influence. August 2023 saw Incheon peak at 36.2°C, whilst August 2022 reached 35.8°C. The current zero probability implies the market is either heavily discounting any temperature outcome or reflects sparse liquidity rather than genuine forecasting consensus.

Traders should monitor the East Asian monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026, as these systems significantly influence Korean peninsula temperatures. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly climate outlooks roughly 30 days in advance; its August 2026 forecast—expected in early July—will provide the first official seasonal guidance. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and any blocking high-pressure systems over the region will determine whether conditions favour above-average or near-normal heat. Cross-platform comparison shows minimal activity on this contract, suggesting limited arbitrage opportunities between sportsbooks and prediction markets at present.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.