Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 is being priced by traders as a near-certainty to land between 78°F and 79°F, with the market assigning a 93% probability to that range. The zero-per-cent implied probability for any outcome below this band reflects confidence that the city will not experience unusually cool midsummer conditions at the San Francisco International Airport Station, the designated resolution point.

Historical July highs at KSFO typically cluster in the 75–82°F band, with 78–79°F appearing frequently in recent decades; the current 93% line aligns closely with that pattern, while the 6% chance for 80–81°F suggests limited upside risk. No meaningful divergence exists between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds, as few traditional bookmakers offer single-day temperature contracts for US cities, leaving Polymarket’s 93% frontrunner as the primary cross-platform benchmark.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for KSFO and any incoming marine-layer disruptions, which can suppress daytime highs by 5–8°F. A recent NWS update notes that a weak offshore flow is expected through mid-July, supporting warmer daytime readings, though a sudden shift in the Pacific high-pressure system could alter the trajectory before the 2026-07-14T12:00:00Z settlement window [1]. Wunderground’s daily history page for KSFO will provide the official resolution data once the day concludes.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.