Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine the settlement range for this contract. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are not currently backing any temperature threshold, though the market has not yet attracted sufficient volume to establish meaningful consensus across competing platforms.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget provide essential context. The station's May average high sits around 20°C, with typical daily maxima ranging from 18–22°C. Extreme heat is uncommon but not unprecedented; the airport has recorded May highs exceeding 28°C in roughly one in every five years, with occasional outliers pushing toward 30°C during early summer heat waves. The 2003 European heat wave and more recent warm springs (2018, 2022) demonstrated that late May can occasionally deliver temperatures well above the seasonal norm, though such events remain statistically infrequent enough that baseline expectations remain moderate.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts from late April onwards, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation and high-pressure systems tracking across the continent. The UK Met Office and Météo-France typically issue extended outlooks by mid-May that clarify whether anomalous warmth is likely. Any sustained anticyclonic pattern positioning itself over northern France in the days preceding 26 May would be the primary catalyst for elevated temperature outcomes. Current divergence between the 0% market probability and historical frequency data suggests either thin liquidity masking genuine uncertainty or early-stage pricing that may shift substantially as the settlement date approaches and meteorological forecasts sharpen.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.