Highest temperature in Paris on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 June 2026, Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record a daily high temperature, and this market segments outcomes into defined Celsius ranges. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature band will occur or have not yet engaged with the contract. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, with the settlement window closing at noon UTC on the day itself.

June in Paris typically sees daily highs between 20°C and 25°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that temperatures exceeding 28°C in early June are uncommon but not unprecedented; the station recorded 29.1°C on 2 June 2003 during that summer's exceptional heat event. More recent Junes have tracked closer to seasonal norms, with 2024 seeing typical early-summer conditions across northern France. These precedents suggest most outcomes will cluster in the 20–26°C range, though outlier heat remains possible.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as June approaches. Atmospheric patterns favouring high pressure systems over France in late May would be a key catalyst for elevated temperatures. The current zero probability likely reflects the contract's early stage and limited trader participation rather than genuine consensus that all temperature ranges are impossible. Cross-platform comparison data from traditional weather betting or meteorological consensus forecasts would clarify whether this represents genuine mispricing or simply low liquidity.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on June 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.