Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **day’s peak temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport**, which the market settles using Wunderground’s high for 5 August. With the crowd-implied probability still at **0% YES**, the contract is pricing in an outcome that would sit at the very bottom of the listed temperature bands, so any move higher would require a late-day surge well outside the current read from the market and the forecast backdrop.[10][9]

For context, Paris in August normally runs much cooler than the levels seen in this summer’s heat episodes, with long-run daytime highs around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius and near-term forecasts for 5 August clustering around the mid-20s to upper-20s, depending on source.[5][10][9] That makes this an awkward contract to anchor on long-run climatology alone: recent European heatwaves have shown that France can break out of seasonal norms sharply, including a June event that Reuters said pushed temperatures to record highs nationally.[18][11] In other words, the market is comparing a routine August profile against a year that has already produced extreme heat.

Traders should watch the final Paris forecast cycle, because the settlement source is an airport station and intraday maxima can differ from city-centre forecasts, especially if sunshine and wind shift late in the day.[9][1][10] The main catalysts are any updated local forecasts for Île-de-France, heat or thunderstorm advisories, and whether the hottest part of the day arrives before or after cloud cover or showers reduce the ceiling on maximum temperature.[9][10] With only one settlement day and a fixed midday UTC window, the contract is most sensitive to forecast revisions rather than to anything structural in the underlying climate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.