Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s 3 August high will be set by a short-fuse summer forecast, but the market is pricing a fairly specific outcome rather than a broad heatwave story. Polymarket currently puts **35°C** in front at **38%**, with **36°C** at **29%**, while the tails are thin: **39°C** is only **1%** and **42°C or higher** is below **1%**.[1] That leaves the crowd-implied position well above a cool-day result, yet still short of a clean consensus on whether the airport peaks in the mid-30s or nudges higher.[1]

Historical framing points to why the probability is not closer to certainty. Paris in August is usually much milder than the current contract’s centre of gravity, with monthly averages from long-run climate sources around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius rather than the mid-30s.[2][15] Recent 2026 heat episodes across France also show how quickly Paris can move into extreme territory, including record-breaking national heat and multiple late-June heat alerts, which traders have been using as a reference for tail risk.[11][13][20] On that basis, the 1% yes price looks more like a bet against the very hottest band than a denial that the day could still run hot.[1]

The main catalysts are the final Paris forecast updates, especially the expected daytime high and whether overnight warmth leaves temperatures elevated early enough to carry the airport station into the 35–36°C range by afternoon. The contract resolves on the **highest** temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget, so intraday timing, cloud cover, wind shift and any thunderstorm-driven relief matter as much as the headline maximum. Comparatively, sportsbook-style weather lines and analyst-style consensus tend to converge around the same mid-30s corridor when models tighten this close to the event; here, the market’s distribution is already narrower at the centre than at the edges, implying the biggest repricing risk is a forecast downgrade rather than a surprise surge beyond 37°C.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.