Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s highest temperature on 1 August will be the settlement point, and the crowd is currently assigning **0%** to the YES side despite the market already pricing a late-summer warm spell rather than a cool day. On the Polymarket contract, the dominant outcome is **28°C at 69%**, with **29°C at 19%**, **27°C at 9%** and **30°C at 2%**, which implies the crowd view is concentrated around the high 20s rather than the threshold-specific wording of this contract.[3]

The historical frame is that early August in Paris usually sits in the mid-20s Celsius, with long-run August mean highs around **25.6–26.4°C** and a reported 1 August record maximum of **35.5°C** at Paris records pages.[13][4] That leaves plenty of upside for a hot-day outcome, but not much evidence for an extreme spike unless synoptic conditions turn sharply warmer; in other words, the present 0% YES line looks much lower than the climatology would justify, and much lower than the broader market’s 28–29°C consensus.[3][13] Recent seasonal reporting also points to heat building across France, with Paris forecast near **33°C** in a recent weekend update, which supports a warm bias rather than a benign one.[8]

The main catalysts are the final Paris-area forecast cycles and whether afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze influence, or shower activity trim the day’s peak at Le Bourget, where the resolution depends on the station’s recorded maximum rather than the city average.[3] Traders should watch the short-range guidance from Météo-France-style models and any late updates showing whether Paris stays in the **28–30°C** band or pushes higher; a small shift in the peak timing can move the settled range materially. Compared with sports-book style odds, prediction-market pricing here is effectively binary against a threshold set by the contract’s temperature buckets, so the meaningful divergence is not between rival venues but between the contract’s **0% YES** and the broader market’s clear leaning towards a warm 28°C-type outcome.[3][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.