Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the settlement range for this market. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are not positioning for any particular outcome, likely because the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or attention ahead of the settlement window. This contrasts sharply with typical weather prediction markets, where temperature ranges across major US cities usually command active trading as the event date approaches.

New York's late May temperatures historically cluster between 75°F and 85°F, with the 30-year average high around 78°F. Extreme readings above 90°F occur in roughly 5–10% of May days at LaGuardia, whilst temperatures below 65°F appear in approximately 15% of cases. The absence of any meaningful probability mass in this market suggests either incomplete range specifications or early-stage market formation. Cross-platform comparison with weather-focused betting sites and meteorological consensus forecasts would clarify whether the 0% reading reflects genuine uncertainty or simply thin order books.

The National Weather Service issues its extended outlook roughly 8–10 days before 30 May, providing the primary catalyst for informed positioning. Traders monitoring Atlantic weather patterns and seasonal climate indices should watch for anomalous jet-stream positioning or tropical system development in late May, both of which could shift temperature expectations materially. Historical precedent from similar late-spring dates in the New York metropolitan area offers the most reliable baseline until official forecasts materialise closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.