Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Market context

The real-world event at stake is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground data. Current crowd-implied probability for the "YES" outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, a stark divergence from the 100% frontrunner probability seen in the resolved 23 June market where 93–94°F was the definitive outcome[1].

Historical climate normals for LaGuardia show a maximum record of 101°F, with the typical June maximum hovering around 84°F, while recent forecasts for June 2026 predict daily highs between 77°F and 92°F[3][5]. The 23 June market resolved to 93–94°F, indicating that early summer 2026 has already experienced temperatures exceeding the seasonal average, framing the 0% probability for the current contract as a potential mispricing if the heatwave persists rather than a reflection of cooling trends[1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports and any sudden shifts in the AccuWeather forecast for LaGuardia, which currently lists overnight lows between 66°F and 73°F[3][5]. A recent American Weather discussion noted that thirty-four cities recorded record highs in 1988, highlighting the volatility of June heat patterns in the region, while the 2026 forecast suggests a continued warm spell that could push temperatures toward the upper 90s[9]. The settlement window ending 2026-06-24T12:00:00Z requires immediate attention to real-time Wunderground updates as the day progresses[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.