Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

The real-world event in question is the highest temperature recorded at New York City’s LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability for any outcome above 75°F sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect a notably cool day despite typical June warmth. This stark divergence from historical norms warrants scrutiny, especially when compared to cross-platform odds where similar contracts show tighter clustering around 82–85°F.

Historical data frames this improbability sharply: June 2026 has already seen LaGuardia reach 86–87°F on 4 June [2], and the average high for June is 83°F [7]. Even yesterday’s maximum at LaGuardia was 83°F [5], while AccuWeather forecasts daily highs between 75° and 88° for the month [7]. The current 0% probability contradicts these patterns, echoing the June 21 market where 84–85°F was priced at 100% [1], indicating a possible mispricing or outlier sentiment in this specific contract.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in numerical weather models or AccuWeather forecasts that might revise expectations [1]. A recent surge in the overnight low market for 22 June, pricing 68–69°F at 59.5% after a 39-point jump, hints at cooling momentum that could influence the high [4]. No major announcements are scheduled, but thin volume and model revisions remain key dependencies to track before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.