Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, capturing the single highest reading across all times that day in degrees Fahrenheit. The 100% crowd-implied probability reflects near-certainty that a temperature reading will occur—an outcome with negligible uncertainty given the station's continuous operation and established data collection protocols.

New York City's June temperatures historically cluster between 75°F and 88°F, with extreme highs occasionally reaching the low 90s during heat waves. The 30-year average high for mid-June sits around 79°F. Comparable June 12th observations from prior years show variability: the National Weather Service records indicate typical ranges spanning 15–20 degrees Fahrenheit depending on prevailing weather patterns. This historical spread explains why the market's certainty centres on *whether* a temperature will be recorded rather than on which specific range it will occupy.

The key variable for traders is the Atlantic weather pattern forecast approaching early June 2026. High-pressure systems tracking northward from the Gulf of Mexico typically drive elevated temperatures across the Northeast, whilst maritime air masses from the Atlantic cool the region. The National Weather Service's extended outlook and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs, updated weekly, will clarify whether June 12th falls within a warm ridge or cooler trough. Traders should monitor these forecasts from late May onwards, as they determine whether temperatures trend toward the 70s, 80s, or potential 90-degree territory.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.