Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 11 June 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's high across all recorded times at the station. Current crowd pricing reflects 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either minimal trading activity or a technical reset in the market's early phase.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range from 75°F to 85°F, with historical June 11 data showing considerable year-to-year variance. The station's records indicate that 90°F+ days occur roughly once every three to four years during early June, whilst readings below 70°F remain uncommon but not unprecedented. Comparable early-summer markets on weather platforms show meaningful divergence between sportsbook temperature bands and prediction-market consensus, particularly when settlement depends on a single monitoring station rather than broader city averages.

Traders should monitor the Atlantic Oscillation and upper-level ridge positioning in late May 2026, as these patterns typically drive New York's early-summer heat events. The National Weather Service's 30-day outlook, published in mid-May, will provide the first substantive guidance on whether June 11 falls within an anomalously warm or seasonally typical period. Any tropical system tracking northeastward in early June could suppress temperatures significantly, whilst a persistent high-pressure system would favour above-normal readings. Current zero-probability pricing suggests the market awaits initial forecast consensus before meaningful position-building occurs.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.