Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 8 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. This specific day falls within a period of intense heat, with recent data showing the airport reached 102°F on 4 July 2026, breaking daily high records and setting a new midnight temperature of 94°F [1][5]. Historical extremes for LaGuardia include 101°F on 3 July 2026 and 101°F on 24 June 2025, suggesting that temperatures in the 90–100°F range are plausible for early July [9]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome appears starkly divergent from these historical precedents, where similar heatwaves have consistently produced highs well above 90°F [1][9].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast updates and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, which could suppress peak temperatures. Recent reports indicate scattered showers and heavier downpours are possible across the region, with a higher potential north of the city [7]. Analyst consensus from AccuWeather forecasts daily highs for LaGuardia in July 2026 ranging between 73°F and 91°F, yet the actual record-breaking heat of early July suggests this model may be underestimating current conditions [4]. The divergence between prediction-market odds and sportsbook-style lines on climate contracts highlights a meaningful gap in risk assessment, particularly given the unprecedented warmth observed in the first week of July [2][4]. Traders must weigh the likelihood of a sustained heatwave against the potential for a cooling rain event, as both factors remain critical dependencies for the final settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.