Highest temperature in NYC on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station in New York City will record its highest temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the “YES” outcome for any specific range. This stark divergence from platforms like Polymarket, where the 70–71°F range commands 75% probability, suggests a mispricing or conflicting interpretation of the contract’s resolution criteria across venues.

Historically, early July in NYC has seen extreme heat, with LaGuardia hitting 104°F on 2 July 2026 and recording a record-breaking midnight temperature of 94°F in a prior heatwave, as reported by FOX Weather[2]. These comparable cases frame the current 0% implied probability as highly anomalous, given that July highs typically range between 81°F and 99°F at this station, according to AccuWeather’s 2026 forecast[8].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily heat advisories and the timing of the settlement window, which ends at 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026, to assess whether the market’s zero probability reflects a technical error or a genuine consensus on an unlikely outcome. Recent reports from AAA note that over 71 million people are travelling during this holiday period, increasing the likelihood of sustained heat conditions that could push temperatures into the 70–75°F range, as seen in prior years[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.