Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 4 July 2026, a date that historically sees intense summer heat in New York City. While the current prediction market implies a 0% chance of any outcome above 98°F, this figure diverges sharply from cross-platform odds. On Polymarket, the 98–99°F range commands 41% probability, with 96–97°F at 39%, suggesting traders expect a scorching day well above the implied zero. Analyst consensus, bolstered by recent records, also leans toward high temperatures; LaGuardia recently hit 104°F, breaking the old 101°F record and coming just three degrees shy of the all-time high, while another record was set for the warmest midnight at 94°F [3][5].

Historical data frames the current probability as an outlier. July 2026 forecasts for LaGuardia indicate daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows from 68°F to 83°F, making a 98°F+ day plausible rather than impossible [7]. The catalysts for traders include monitoring the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KLGA, which currently show 93°F at 2 PM, and watching for any sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns that could push temperatures higher [8]. Recent news from Fox Weather highlights the airport’s capacity to exceed Phoenix’s heat, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme readings [5]. Traders should also track Wunderground’s official daily high, the designated resolution source, as real-time data may contradict the market’s 0% implication [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.