Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the **highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 30 July 2026**, with settlement using Wunderground’s final daily record rather than a citywide average or a Central Park reading. That distinction matters because LaGuardia often runs a little different from inland Manhattan, and the contract’s current **0% YES** implies the crowd thinks the eventual daily maximum will land outside the market’s top bracket by the time the observation is finalised.[4][8]

Historically, late-July New York City heat can produce very warm afternoons, but the all-time context shows how demanding the upper bands are. Central Park’s record high is 106°F, while LaGuardia has reached 107°F in past extremes, yet recent summers have more often produced highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with one recent New York monthly forecast page showing 88°F on 30 July and similar values around that date.[8][1][3][14] That mix helps explain why sportsbook-style and prediction-market pricing can diverge sharply: a market at 0% YES is effectively pricing a very low chance of a breakout heat spike, while weather-history comparables still leave some tail risk if a heat dome builds late in the day.

The main catalysts are the day-of forecast updates, any National Weather Service heat advisories, and whether thunderstorms or sea-breeze effects cap the afternoon maximum before LaGuardia’s observation window closes. Recent coverage in late June highlighted the potential for record-breaking New York heat and a 100-degree Central Park reading earlier in July, which is a reminder that summer volatility can still shift quickly if large-scale warmth arrives, but the relevant contract still depends on the specific airport station and the final Wunderground log, not broader New York headlines.[15][17][18][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.