Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 28 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit. Settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC on that date. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in an outcome that falls outside the range specified by this particular contract—likely because the range itself has not been disclosed in the market description provided.

New York's July temperatures historically cluster between 75°F and 88°F at LaGuardia, with extreme highs occasionally reaching the low 90s during heat waves. The 30-year average high for late July sits around 82°F. The current zero probability reflects either an unusually narrow or unusually broad temperature band in the resolution criteria; without visibility of the actual range boundaries, traders cannot calibrate positions against climatological norms or recent anomalies. July 2024 saw New York experience a significant heat dome, with temperatures exceeding 90°F on multiple days, establishing a recent precedent for elevated summer conditions.

The National Weather Service and Climate Prediction Center will issue seasonal outlooks in the months preceding July 2026, with particular attention to Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation, both drivers of northeastern US summer heat. Any El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could shift probabilities materially. Traders should monitor spring 2026 forecasts for signals of anomalous warmth, though the long lead time means current meteorological data carries limited predictive weight for this settlement date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.