Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 27 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal divergence, as most established prediction markets and weather-focused sportsbooks have not yet opened substantive positions on this contract, likely owing to the two-year settlement window and inherent difficulty in forecasting precise daily maxima so far in advance.

Historical July temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 78°F and 88°F, with extreme heat days occasionally pushing toward 95°F. The 1999 heat wave saw readings exceed 98°F, though such events remain statistical outliers. Current climate models suggest July 2026 will track within normal seasonal bounds, though the Atlantic hurricane season and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns remain the primary catalysts for meaningful deviation. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlook, updated quarterly, will provide the most reliable guidance as the date approaches; traders should monitor late-June 2026 forecasts when meteorological confidence intervals narrow substantially.

The absence of meaningful odds reflects genuine forecasting difficulty rather than market consensus. Traders entering positions now face compounded uncertainty: both the inherent variability of single-day weather prediction and the risk that market liquidity remains thin through settlement. Early movers establishing ranges around historical medians face the trade-off between precision and probability of resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.