Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York’s daytime high at LaGuardia on 26 July is the settlement driver here, so the key question is whether the station’s actual maximum lands in the low 80s or pushes into the mid-80s Fahrenheit. The current crowd price is awkwardly out of line with the event-specific market structure: Polymarket shows the favoured bands centred on **84–85°F** and **82–83°F**, with those two ranges carrying most of the implied weight, while the listed market probability in your brief is still **0% YES**, a sign either of stale pricing or a contract state that has not yet normalised to the same snapshot. [1]

Historically, late-July New York outcomes usually resolve in the hot-but-not-extreme zone unless a stronger heat dome builds in, and that matters because the difference between 83°F and 85°F is enough to flip the settlement bucket. Comparable weather summaries for the same date in New York point to maximums around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, roughly the low- to mid-80s Fahrenheit, which is consistent with the market’s concentration in adjacent bands rather than a broad tail into the 90s. [2][3] In prediction-market terms, that means consensus is not calling for an extreme print; it is debating the exact bucket within a narrow range. [1][2]

The main catalysts are the daily forecast updates from the National Weather Service and any heat advisories, since those can shift the expected peak temperature at LaGuardia by enough to move the contract between neighbouring ranges. Wego’s recent NYC heat-wave coverage also highlights the mid-day heating window, roughly 11 a.m. to 4 p.m., which is the period most likely to determine the day’s high if cloud cover or sea breeze timing changes. [4] For traders comparing platforms, the meaningful divergence is between the event-specific market’s strong concentration around 82–85°F and the near-zero probability shown in the brief, which does not align with the published band leadership on Polymarket. [1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 26? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.