Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The settlement hinges on the maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit. The National Weather Service operates the official station there, with historical data accessible via Wunderground. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either waiting for additional information or treating this as a placeholder market pending resolution parameters clarification.

New York's July temperatures typically range from 75°F to 88°F, with extreme heat days occasionally pushing into the low 90s. The city's record high for July stands at 104°F, set in 1966. Over the past decade, July 24 specifically has seen highs between 76°F and 87°F at LaGuardia, indicating a relatively stable mid-summer pattern without pronounced volatility on this particular date. The 0% reading reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any genuine consensus that temperatures will fall outside measurable ranges.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts beginning in early July 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat domes or Atlantic tropical systems that could influence northeastern conditions. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks in August and September, but early-season activity occasionally affects New York weather in late July. Urban heat island effects around LaGuardia—situated in Queens with surrounding development—can elevate readings 2–4°F above surrounding areas. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 24 July, meaning the market closes before the day's potential peak temperature, creating a timing consideration for traders familiar with typical afternoon heat cycles in the region.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.