Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The reading that matters is the **highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 July 2026**, not the citywide headline or a Central Park print, so traders need to anchor on the airport’s actual hourly maxima rather than broader New York weather narratives. On the information available in market commentary, the consensus setup was for a mid-80s Fahrenheit outcome, with the most likely band around **83–87°F**, reflecting a post-heatwave moderation pattern and the usual day-to-day uncertainty from cloud cover, humidity and seabreeze timing.[1]

That makes the current **0% YES** crowd-implied price look far below the weather framing embedded in the contract itself, though there is no sportsbook benchmark in the supplied material to confirm a true cross-platform gap. The available market note points to limited odds on readings above 90°F or below 80°F, which is consistent with a fairly compressed distribution rather than a long-shot weather extreme.[1] Comparable July cases in New York often settle close to climatology when synoptic heat eases, but the airport can still diverge from Manhattan by a degree or two depending on onshore flow and late cloud breaks.[1]

The main catalysts for traders are the final NWS-style day-ahead setup, the precise timing of afternoon sea-breeze arrival, and any convective cloud or shower development that suppresses the day’s top reading by a few degrees.[1] Because the market resolves off the *highest* LaGuardia temperature rather than a daily average, even a short-lived late-afternoon warm-up can matter, while an earlier shower or thicker cloud deck can leave the print at the lower edge of the likely range.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 22? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.