Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport recorded its peak daily temperature on 20 July 2026, with the outcome now fixed for the prediction market tied to that date. The market resolves to the Fahrenheit range containing the highest temperature at that station, using Wunderground as the official source. Current crowd-implied probability for any outcome outside the frontrunner is effectively zero, reflecting a settled consensus rather than active uncertainty.

Historical July highs in NYC typically cluster between 80°F and 90°F, with 82–83°F aligning closely with median readings over the past decade. The 100% probability assigned to “82–83°F” on Polymarket suggests traders view this range as statistically inevitable, consistent with regional climate norms where extreme heat above 95°F or cool dips below 70°F are rare in mid-July [1]. No comparable year in recent history shows a divergence strong enough to challenge this tight band, reinforcing the market’s near-certainty pricing.

With the settlement window already closed as of 12:00 UTC on 20 July, no further catalysts will influence the outcome. Traders should note that weather forecasts for July 2026 had projected highs near 30°C (86°F), slightly above the market’s chosen range, but actual recorded data at LaGuardia confirmed the 82–83°F result [2]. Since the event has passed and the resolution source is definitive, odds across platforms show no meaningful divergence—sportsbooks do not list this contract, and analyst consensus mirrors the prediction market’s 100% confidence in the frontrunner.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.