Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground data. While the current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0%, cross-platform odds reveal a stark divergence: Polymarket’s frontrunner is 98–99°F at 27%, with 100–101°F trailing at 22%, suggesting traders are pricing in a severe heatwave rather than dismissing the event entirely.

Historical parallels frame this probability shift. On 2 July 1966, Central Park first hit 100°F on that date, a record only recently tied in 2026 when JFK Airport reached 100°F, with both JFK and Bridgeport tying their all-time highs for the day at 99°F and 98°F respectively [3][4]. These cases indicate that 98–101°F is not an outlier but a plausible ceiling for early July in NYC, especially when low temperatures remain well above the climatological average of 70–72°F, tightening the plausible high range [2].

Traders should monitor real-time heatwave announcements and National Weather Service climatological updates, as the current forecast for LaGuardia shows daily highs ranging from 81° to 99°F, with overnight lows between 68° and 83°F [7]. The recent confirmation of record-breaking heat at nearby airports signals that dependencies on urban heat retention and regional pressure systems are already active, making the 98–101°F range a critical watch zone for settlement [3]. No moralising is needed; the data alone confirms the market is pricing in extreme conditions, not impossibility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.