Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport will record its peak temperature for 17 July 2026, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that day’s highest reading. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily history for station KLGA, capturing the single highest temperature across all times on that date.

Historical July peaks at LaGuardia typically cluster between 85°F and 90°F, with 86–87°F appearing most frequent in recent decades. This pattern aligns with Polymarket’s current frontrunner, where the 86–87°F range commands 52% implied probability, while 88–89°F holds 30% [1]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome on any unlisted range suggests traders view extreme outliers—such as temperatures below 80°F or above 92°F—as highly improbable, consistent with mid-summer norms in the region.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s forecast updates for the New York area, particularly any shifts in high-pressure systems or humidity levels that could push temperatures toward the upper end of the expected band [2]. No immediate catalysts like official heat advisories have been issued yet, but the timing—just hours before the 12:00 UTC settlement window—means real-time observations from KLGA will dominate price action. With odds updating in real time as traders adjust positions, the market reflects the latest collective view on the most likely outcome [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.