Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 15 July 2026, with settlement confirmed via Wunderground history. While the specific contract for a zero-probability outcome sits at 0% YES, Polymarket data shows the broader prediction ecosystem heavily favours the 98–99°F range at 41%, with 96–97°F trailing at 20% [1]. This divergence highlights a stark contrast between the current zero-implied line and the active consensus elsewhere, suggesting the 0% figure may reflect a niche or illiquid sub-market rather than the prevailing analyst view on New York mid-summer heat.

Historical records from the National Weather Service for LaGuardia indicate that July peaks frequently breach 95°F, with several years in the 2010s and 2020s reaching the 98–100°F band [2]. Such comparable cases frame the 0% probability as an outlier against established climatic norms, where temperatures in this range are routine rather than anomalous for the region. The weight of historical data suggests the market should logically assign significant probability to the upper 90s, making the current zero line a notable statistical anomaly compared to the 41% frontrunner seen on competing platforms [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast for the New York metropolitan area and real-time Wunderground updates as the settlement window closes. No specific regulatory announcements or scheduled events drive this contract; the sole dependency is the atmospheric reading at KLGA. The absence of external catalysts means price movement will rely entirely on the incoming temperature data, which will either validate the 98–99°F consensus or force a rapid repricing if the day remains cooler than the historical average [2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.