Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

An intense heatwave is currently dominating the East Coast, with New York City and Washington, D.C. under a strong high-pressure system that has pushed temperatures into the upper 90s. Forecasts for 12 July 2026 indicate NYC highs around 94°F, with humidity near 75% driving heat index values to approximately 105°F, creating hazardous conditions across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions[2].

Historical data for LaGuardia Airport shows July highs typically range from 81°F to 96°F, with an average of 84°F, though record-breaking events have occurred, including a 102°F midnight temperature in recent years[3][5]. Despite this volatility, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are betting against the temperature exceeding the market’s upper threshold, a stance that diverges sharply from the live weather outlook showing dangerous heat already in place[2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any shifts in the high-pressure dome that could push temperatures beyond 96°F. Recent reports confirm heat alerts are active across the region, with electricity demand rising as cooling systems run continuously, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained extreme heat through the settlement window[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.