Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a severe heat wave, with LaGuardia Airport recording its highest midnight temperature on record at 94°F early Friday, while daily highs have surged to 102°F and even 104°F in recent days [1][4][5]. This market, which settles on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia on 10 July 2026, shows a crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the specific temperature range in question is virtually impossible to hit despite the extreme conditions.

Historical data for LaGuardia in July shows average highs of 87°F, yet the station has previously recorded temperatures as high as 107°F, indicating that extreme outliers are possible during intense heat events [2][9]. The current 0% probability diverges sharply from the real-world reality of a record-breaking heat wave where temperatures have already exceeded 100°F, creating a notable gap between the prediction market’s implied odds and the observed weather patterns that sportsbooks or analyst consensus might price more aggressively.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological updates and Wunderground’s hourly records for LaGuardia, as the settlement relies explicitly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 10 July [1][8]. With the heat wave persisting and midnight temperatures already breaking records, the key catalyst is whether the daily high on 10 July will sustain or exceed the 102–104°F range seen earlier in the week, a dependency that could rapidly shift the market if the heat continues [4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.