Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, a date that historically sits within New York City’s hottest month. Current crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome is 0%, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, despite seasonal norms.

Historical July data for New York shows daily highs consistently between 80° and 100°F, with an average high near 84°F[3][5]. Last year’s June 1 reading settled at 70–71°F, well below typical July peaks[1]. The 0% implied probability likely reflects a mismatch between the contract’s range and the expected 80s–90s°F outcome, as forecasters anticipate highs in the 80s with isolated thunderstorms and strong wind gusts[2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s heat advisories and real-time Wunderground updates for LaGuardia, as a heat wave currently affecting 32 states could push temperatures toward the upper end of the seasonal range[7]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, so any late-morning storm activity or rapid temperature shifts before that deadline will be critical[2]. Analyst consensus aligns with AccuWeather’s forecast of 80–100°F highs, diverging sharply from the 0% market probability if the range is narrowly defined[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.