Highest temperature in NYC on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract turns on the hottest reading at LaGuardia Airport on 6 August, and the market is pricing a modestly warm outcome rather than an extreme one. The crowd is putting the biggest weight on **88–89°F** at 66%, with only 26% on **90–91°F** and just 1.4% on **94–95°F**, while Robinhood’s related line has the high being above **88°F** at 75¢, above **89°F** at 45¢, and above **90°F** at 23¢, which implies a slightly more cautious view than the Polyscalping board. [1][8]

That pricing fits New York’s August climatology: late-summer highs in the city are often in the upper 80s, so a sub-90°F result is a normal read rather than an outlier. Recent comparable guidance also points that way, with AccuWeather showing New York around **88°F** on 6 August and weather outlets describing upper-80s to low-90s daytime heat, while a National Weather Service climate report remains the key record source for settlement once the day is complete. [3][7][14][15]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final day-of forecasts, any Heat Advisory updates, and whether cloud cover, humidity or scattered showers trim the afternoon peak at the airport rather than in the city core. USA Today reported a regional heat advisory through Friday with “feels like” temperatures in the low 100s, but also noted actual highs were expected to peak in the upper 80s and lower 90s, which supports the current cluster around the high-80s band rather than a decisive break into the mid-90s. [11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.