Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 August 2026, with settlement tied to the Wunderground daily history entry rather than an all-NYC composite, so the contract is really about one specific observing site and one calendar day. The crowd has priced the **YES** side at **0%**, while a similar cross-platform listing on Polymarket shows the market distributed across a broad range of outcomes rather than clustering around a single hot extreme, with the biggest weights sitting in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit rather than anything close to a certain result.[3][5]

That shape is consistent with August climatology in New York, where long-run daytime highs are usually in the upper 70s to low 80s, but short-lived warm spells can still push readings into the upper 80s or beyond if humidity and air mass conditions align.[1][11][15] Recent regional weather coverage has also highlighted how quickly New York can swing into heat-wave territory, including a 100°F day in early July and repeated warnings about extreme heat, which matters because late-summer temperature markets often move sharply on a single updated forecast cycle.[7][8][19]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final National Weather Service and app-based forecast updates, any heat advisories or thunderstorm timing that could cap the afternoon high, and the airport’s own microclimate, which can differ from central Manhattan by a few degrees. Robinhood’s contract has already assigned meaningful probability to a high in the low 80s, but that still leaves scope for divergence versus a zero-price market on a different venue if traders are pricing the chance of an outlier read more aggressively.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.