Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 10 August 2026, measured via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary forecasts. The 2% implied probability reflects a narrow band—likely the 95–99°F range or higher—suggesting the crowd expects typical summer conditions for New York City in mid-August, when daily highs ordinarily settle between 82–86°F.

Historical August data from LaGuardia shows extreme heat is rare but not unprecedented. The airport recorded 102°F on 9 August 1936 and 99°F on 20 August 1988; readings above 95°F occur roughly once every three to five years during August. The current 2% probability aligns with climatological frequency for temperatures in the 98–100°F bracket, though it may underestimate tail-risk scenarios involving heat domes or stalled high-pressure systems that occasionally push the Northeast into the upper 90s or low triple digits.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts from June 2026 onwards, particularly Atlantic hurricane activity and jet-stream positioning, both of which influence August heat severity across the Northeast. The National Weather Service's extended outlooks and any issued heat advisories in early August will provide concrete signals. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations data specifically, making source verification critical; discrepancies between that table and the Day High & Low summary section have been flagged as a potential resolution point, though historical divergences at major stations remain minimal.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.