Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the Munich Airport Station will record its daily peak temperature, a figure that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero per cent probability to a “YES” result for any specific bracket. This stark divergence is evident when comparing the zero per cent implied probability on one platform against Polymarket’s frontrunner, 25°C, which commands 59% of the vote, with 26°C holding 46% and 27°C at 26%[2]. Analyst consensus from European and global models similarly places Munich’s July maximum near 25–27°C, mirroring the tight split seen in active markets rather than the null probability elsewhere[3].

Historical data frames this range as highly plausible, with daily highs in July at Munich International Airport typically increasing from 72°F to 75°F, rarely falling below 61°F or exceeding 87°F[1]. The hottest day ever recorded in Munich was approximately 38°C, while recent summers have seen temperatures of 34–36°C become increasingly common[7]. Even during Germany’s record-breaking heat wave in June 2026, which pushed national temperatures to 41.3°C, Munich’s specific conditions remained within the bounds suggested by current market frontrunners[4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the market cannot settle until the first data point for 9 July is published[2]. Current observations from BBC Weather show a high of 27°C for Thursday 9 July at München-Flughafen, with humidity at 97% and pressure rising, suggesting conditions align closely with the 25–27°C model consensus[8]. Any deviation from this range would likely stem from sudden shifts in the high-pressure hot air mass currently grilling Europe, known as Yvonne, which has lifted surface temperatures beyond 40°C in other German regions[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.