Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport is currently experiencing sunny conditions with a high of 28°C on 12 July 2026, yet the prediction market for the day’s peak temperature shows a 0% implied probability for the YES outcome. This stark divergence suggests the market is pricing in a specific, narrow temperature bracket that the current 28°C reading fails to meet, or that the settlement criteria require a higher threshold than the morning peak has so far delivered.

Historical data for Munich in July indicates daily highs typically range between 22°C and 32°C, rarely exceeding 37°C even during extreme heatwaves [1][2]. While Germany recorded an all-time national high of 42.6°C in 2021, such extremes are exceptional and usually occur in the Rhineland rather than Bavaria [6][7]. The current 0% probability likely reflects a consensus that the specific range offered in this contract is statistically improbable given the typical variability of Munich’s summer weather, where highs frequently hover around 25–28°C without breaching higher brackets.

Traders should monitor the final hourly updates from Wunderground for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM), as the market resolves solely on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 12 July [10]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the key catalyst is the afternoon peak, which in July often pushes temperatures 2–3°C higher than the morning reading [1][5]. Any sudden shift in wind direction from the north-east or a drop in humidity could signal a late heat spike, potentially altering the final resolution if the current 28°C is not the day’s absolute maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.