Highest temperature in Munich on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport Station will record its peak temperature for 1 July 2026, with the market currently implying a 0% chance of any outcome outside the 21–23°C range. European and global climate models forecast a maximum near 22°C, aligning tightly with the crowd-implied probability that centres on 21°C at 77% and 22°C at 21%[1]. This forecast sits within the historical norm for July, when Munich’s average daily high reaches 24°C (75°F), rarely dipping below 21°C or exceeding 35°C[2][5]. The warmest years on record, 2018 and 2022, saw peaks approaching 35°C, yet recent short-range guidance suggests no such extreme this year[4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as revisions to temperature datapoints are permitted until the first record for 2 July is published[1]. No immediate weather announcements are scheduled, but the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, meaning any late-day temperature spikes could alter the outcome before finalisation. The divergence between the 0% implied probability for non-21–23°C outcomes and the historical possibility of 35°C extremes highlights a key risk: the market is heavily clustered on moderate forecasts, potentially underpricing rare heat events[5]. Analyst consensus from Polymarket reinforces this tight clustering, with 21°C as the leading outcome[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.