Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila faces its peak summer heat on 11 July 2026, with the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station poised to record the day’s maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined winning range, despite historical data showing July highs typically reaching 31°C to 32°C at this location [4].

Historical records frame this near-zero probability as an outlier; Metro Manila recently logged its all-time highest temperature of 38.8°C at the same PAGASA station in April 2024, while July averages consistently hover around 31°C with very high humidity [4][5]. The divergence between sportsbook lines (which often price extreme heat events higher) and the prediction market’s 0% implied probability indicates analysts may be discounting the likelihood of a record-breaking spike, possibly due to expected rainfall patterns typical of 21 rainy days in July [4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), which recently forecast apparent temperatures of 43°C to 44°C in Metro Manila under dangerous heat conditions [3]. The primary catalyst is the official Wunderground daily high for the airport station, which will settle the contract; any sudden shift in cloud cover or tropical storm activity—occurring on roughly 1.6 days in July—could alter the final reading [4]. Cross-platform odds comparisons reveal a stark contrast: while some sportsbooks offer elevated payouts for extreme heat, prediction markets remain sceptical, reflecting a consensus that 2026 will not exceed recent historical extremes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.