Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the temperature exceeding the defined threshold. This real-world event hinges on whether extreme heat breaks seasonal norms during Manila’s wet season, a period typically marked by heavy rainfall and high humidity rather than record highs.

Historically, July in Manila sees daytime temperatures averaging 31°C, with overnight lows around 24°C, and frequent rainfall occurring on 21 days of the month[1]. While April is the hottest month, with averages reaching 32°C, July’s wet conditions usually suppress peak temperatures, though tropical storms can occasionally drive localized spikes[2]. Recent PAGASA data shows top national highs of 34.0°C in Ilocos Norte and Samar as of 30 June, but Manila itself has not recently matched such extremes[7]. The 0% implied probability suggests traders expect no breach of the threshold, aligning with the typical cooling effect of monsoon rains and cloud cover.

Traders should monitor updates on Baggyong Henry and the Southwest Monsoon, which are forecast to deliver 50–100 mm of rain across Metro Manila and surrounding provinces, potentially suppressing temperatures further[3]. PAGASA has issued no severe wind warnings but notes risks of localized thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, which could briefly alter heat patterns[3]. With the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, real-time Wunderground data will be the definitive resolution source, and any sudden lapse in storm activity could shift market odds away from the current consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.